If you follow @MikeChillit in whole or part on Twitter, you probably know I’ve tinkered around with drift patterns in the Southern Indian Ocean off and on. I’ve done that mostly as a reaction to the efforts of others who appear to be deliberately conducting analysis in a way that concludes Australia has been searching in the “correct location” all this time, and the reason it hasn’t found anything is because there isn’t anything to find.
Admittedly, the search for MH370 has been complicated. We don’t have much information about what may have happened, let alone what actually happened. But that should not have paralyzed the effort to find the plane. Nearly everyone agrees the “Seventh Arc” metric developed by Inmarsat from BTO exchanges between the plane and its 3-F1 satellite is probably reasonably useful. It marks a mostly north-to-south path over the South Indian Ocean south of Java that runs some 4,000 km before reaching a spot near -40° S, where most also agree the plane could not have flown beyond.